Jakarta – The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) projects no significant climate anomalies throughout 2025, stating that climate conditions will generally be normal. However, the BMKG still urges various parties to increase awareness of the potential for hydrometeorological disasters, such as floods and landslides in the rainy season and drought in the dry season.
BMKG Head Dwikorita Karnawati explained in the “Climate Outlook 2025” report that Indonesia will experience stable climate conditions without significant disturbances from phenomena such as El Niño or La Niña, which are expected to be in neutral conditions throughout the year. “ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) will be stable. Thus, most parts of Indonesia will experience annual rainfall in the normal category with an amount of around 1,000-5,000 mm,” Dwikorita said in a written statement on Tuesday, November 5.
BMKG estimates that around 67% of Indonesia will receive more than 2,500 mm of rainfall annually. Areas with high rainfall include most of Sumatra, Kalimantan Island, and Papua. However, some areas are predicted to experience below-normal rainfall, including a small part of South Sumatra, East Nusa Tenggara, North Maluku, and northern West Papua.
“Areas that experience below-normal annual rainfall must be prepared for potential drought, especially in the East Nusa Tenggara region,” Dwikorita added.
Potential for hydrometeorological disasters
BMKG also explained the risk of hydrometeorological disasters in areas with high rainfall, especially at the peak of the rainy season. Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, BMKG’s Deputy for Climatology, explained that areas with above-average rainfall potential must pay attention to the potential for flooding and landslides.
“Drainage systems, reservoirs, ponds, and artificial water reservoirs must be ensured to function optimally to anticipate floods and water shortages during the dry season,” Ardhasena said.
To overcome the drought risk, BMKG suggests good water resources management in areas with low rainfall. This includes increasing water absorption capacity and managing irrigation systems in affected food production areas.
BMKG also predicts that the monthly average temperature will increase slightly between +0.3 and +0.6 °C from May to July 2025. According to Dwikorita, this temperature increase needs to be anticipated because it can impact health and agricultural productivity, especially in areas such as South Sumatra, Java, NTB, and NTT.
“This condition must be considered in managing agricultural activities, especially in food centre areas,” Dwikorita said.
In the agricultural sector, BMKG proposes anticipations such as adjusting planting patterns, selecting drought-resistant seeds, and using irrigation technology.
“Intensification of irrigation can help areas with below-average rainfall still produce good food crops,” Ardhasena explained.
Dwikorita urged local governments to proactively develop better climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in their regions. “Although the weather is predicted to be normal, local governments still need to pay attention to the readiness of water resources infrastructure and disaster risk management, especially for areas prone to flooding or drought,” Dwikorita concluded. (Hartatik)
