oleh: Shakira Nuha Fella Nouf
Gorontalo — Over the past two years, malaria cases in Indonesia have surged by 69 per cent. According to data from the Ministry of Health (Kemenkes) for 2023–2025, the figure has risen from 418,546 to 706,297 cases. This figure marks the highest on record in Indonesia’s history.
Recent research from Monash University suggests that serious efforts are needed to reduce the risk of a surge in cases amidst increasingly extreme climate change. Measures ranging from vector control and vaccination to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are crucial to reducing the burden of these diseases. The study, published in Science Advances (2026), examines the ecological, epidemiological and socio-economic factors that interact to influence the transmission of malaria and dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF).
Toby Cumming, lead researcher at the Health and Climate Initiative, Monash School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, emphasised the importance of understanding the factors driving disease transmission.
“Climate change is causing rising temperatures and shifts in rainfall patterns, thereby expanding the areas suitable for Anopheles and Aedes mosquito populations to thrive,” explained Cumming in a press release.
This is because the influence of climate is not linear; it may be due to seasonal factors and varies from region to region. However, the impact of transmission is generally relatively similar. Over the last century, cases of malaria have declined, whilst cases of dengue fever have actually increased.
Henry Surendra, an associate professor at Monash University Indonesia, stated that mosquito control and medical treatment have succeeded in significantly reducing the transmission of malaria. Conversely, increasing urbanisation is facilitating the breeding of Aedes mosquitoes, thereby accelerating the spread of dengue haemorrhagic fever, for which there is still no specific cure.
In collaboration with the Ministry of Health, his team is currently identifying climatic, environmental and demographic factors associated with the incidence of malaria and dengue fever in areas of high biodiversity in East Kalimantan.
Cumming warned against becoming complacent about the downward trend in malaria cases. This is because the global number of cases has risen by 8.5 per cent over the last decade.
“We must step up our prevention and response efforts,” he said.
Currently, measures to prevent dengue fever through vaccines and vector control strategies—such as the release of Wolbachia bacteria into Aedes mosquito populations to reduce their ability to transmit dengue—are already being implemented. Researchers emphasise the importance of coordinating various interventions to address both climatic and non-climatic factors that contribute to the spread of mosquito-borne diseases.
Banner photo: Tom Fisk/Pexels.com
This article was first published in Indonesian on Mongabay on 13 October 2026, under the title “Malaria di Indonesia Sentuh Angka Tertinggi dalam Sejarah, Pengaruh Krisis Iklim?”
