by: Henriette Imelda*
Following the decision of the Parties at the fifth Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA5)—which took place simultaneously with COP28—in Dubai in 2023, each Party that ratified the Paris Agreement is expected to update its previous Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). In Indonesia’s context, this means that the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets and efforts submitted through the Enhanced Nationally Determined Contribution (ENDC) in September 2022 must be reviewed.
In the ENDC, Indonesia committed to reducing GHG emissions by 31.89% with its efforts (unconditional) and 43.20% if it receives international assistance (conditional). The Paris Agreement in its 3rd article, as well as Article 4 paragraph 3, which is then reemphasized through paragraph 167 of Decision 1/CMA.5, states that the next NDC should show an increase in ambition (progression) and not a decrease in ambition (backsliding). Therefore, Indonesia is expected to increase its commitments, including increasing the amount of GHG emission reductions until 2035, which is the new end date as agreed by Parties at the last CMA5.
NDCs and achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement
In submitting NDCs, as agreed in Decision 4/CMA.1 in Annex I, Parties must provide information on how their NDCs are equitable (in accordance with the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities or CBDR-RC) and how they contribute to achieving the objectives of the Convention on Climate Change as set out in Article 2 of the Convention.
Article 2 of the Convention states that:
“The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.”
This means that all actions to reduce GHG emissions aim to stabilize GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level where the Earth’s ecosystems can naturally adapt to the impacts of climate change. This paragraph also serves as a reminder to all of us that GHG emissions do not automatically disappear after they are released; rather, they remain in the atmosphere for a certain amount of time, according to their lifespan.
Lifespan of GHGs in the Atmosphere
Every GHG has a certain lifetime in the atmosphere. That means, even if we succeed in producing no GHG emissions or zero anthropogenically generated GHG emissions, the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere will remain due to the accumulation of GHG emissions from several years back. These atmospheric GHG concentrations will still contribute to global warming, resulting in climate change.
But today, most of us focus only on GHG emissions released at any given time, forgetting the fundamental point that what we emit today will stay in the atmosphere for some time. For example, GHGs such as nitrogen oxides (N2O) have a lifetime of up to 109 years. This gas will remain in the atmosphere for the next 109 years if released today. However, the lifespan of carbon dioxide (CO2) gas is the most difficult to predict, as it continuously cycles through the Earth’s carbon dioxide cycle.
The consequence of the lifespan of GHGs is that it is important to address the impacts of climate change that occur due to the persistence of GHGs in the atmosphere according to their lifespan. Adaptation to the impacts of climate change becomes inevitable. At some point, when mitigation and adaptation actions fail, damage and loss due to climate change impacts will occur. That is why, to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, it is important to reduce GHG emissions as ambitiously as possible, and at the same time, it is important to adapt and identify the potential for loss and damage due to climate change impacts.
How should the next NDC be structured?
Given the longevity of GHGs in the atmosphere, the next NDC should be even more ambitious than the current one. This is to anticipate climate dynamics with a frequency and intensity that can no longer be predicted. These climate dynamics will not only determine the adaptation actions that must be taken, but they can also affect efforts to take mitigation actions.
The impacts of climate change are inevitable, and the increase in global average temperature by 1.1°C (Decision 1/CMA.5 para. 15a) is irreversible. That is why the adaptation element and the potential for loss and damage due to climate change impacts should be part of the submitted NDC and are no longer optional. GHG emission reduction actions must also be more ambitious, considering that the climate dynamics during planning will differ from the climate dynamics during implementation.
Including adaptation elements and potential loss and damage due to climate change impacts in NDCs, especially from developing countries, will signal urgency to all Parties that ambitious efforts – including in the provision of climate finance for developing countries – are needed to overcome the climate crisis that increasingly threatens the lives of the world.
*The author is the Director of Policy Advocacy at the Indonesia Research Institute for Decarbonization (IRID).
This article first appeared on IRID’s website on July 8, 2024
