Jakarta – The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts the world will face a 50 percent chance of global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in 2026, reports said Tuesday (10/5).
However, these predictions do not mean the world will pass the long-term warming threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius, which scientists have set as the highest limit to avoid catastrophic climate change. But a year of warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius can offer a taste of what crossing that long-term threshold is like, Reuters news agency reported.
WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas said, “The probability of exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius for a short time has increased since 2015. Scientists in 2020 predicted a 20 percent chance and revised last year to 40 percent.
Even one year at 1.5 degrees Celsius, warming can have dire effects, such as killing much of the world’s coral reefs and shrinking Arctic sea ice sheets.
“We are getting measurably closer to temporarily reaching the lower target of the Paris Agreement,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas, referring to climate accords adopted in 2015.
Furthermore, he said, the global average temperature is now about 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial average.
“Loss and damage associated with, or exacerbated by, climate change is already occurring, some of it likely irreversible for the foreseeable future,” said Maxx Dilley, deputy director of climate at the WMO.
World leaders pledged under the 2015 Paris Agreement to prevent crossing the long-term 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold, measured as a multi-decade average. But so far it has failed to reduce climate warming emissions.
“It’s important to remember that once we hit 1.5C, the lack of science-based emissions policies mean that we will suffer worsening impacts as we approach 1.6C, 1.7C, and every increment of warming thereafter,” said Kim Cobb, a climate scientist at the Georgia Institute of Technology. (Hartatik)
