Jakarta – According to the latest Emissions Gap Report 2024 from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the world faces a critical deadline to avert catastrophic climate change, the UNEP said on Thursday, October 24. The report warns that unless immediate and unprecedented global action is taken to slash greenhouse gas emissions, the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C will be out of reach within a few years.
UNEP emphasises that current climate commitments fall significantly short. While the 1.5°C target remains technically achievable, it would require a 42% reduction in annual greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and a 57% reduction by 2035. The report calls for a massive global mobilisation led by the G20 nations, starting now.
“Continuing with current policies only would lead to 3.1°C of warming. Under these scenarios – which all operate on a probability of over 66 per cent – temperatures would continue to rise into the next century,” warns the report. Even if current pledges are fully met, the best-case scenario would limit temperature rise to 2.6-2.8°C, which still falls far short of the Paris goals.
Adding additional net-zero pledges to implement unconditional and conditional NDCs fully could limit global warming to 1.9°C. Still, the report says there is currently low confidence in implementing these net-zero pledges.
In response to the report, UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed grave concerns, stating, “There is a direct link between increasing emissions and more frequent and intense climate disasters. We’re playing with fire … we are out of time.” Guterres urged nations to immediately close the emissions, ambition, and finance gaps.
The report also highlights the urgent need for revised and more ambitious Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) ahead of COP30, set for Brazil in 2025. Current NDCs, even when fully implemented, would still see temperature rises beyond safe thresholds, with disastrous consequences for biodiversity, public health, and economies worldwide.
Pathway to 1.5°C: A massive global effort
According to UNEP’s findings, meeting climate goals requires a global effort on a scale never seen before. This includes a sixfold increase in mitigation investments and rapid deployment of renewable energy technologies such as solar and wind power. Protecting and restoring forests, improving energy efficiency, and transitioning away from fossil fuels are crucial.
“Climate crunch time is here,” said Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director. “No more hot air, please,” she urged every nations. Andersen said nations must use the upcoming COP29 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, to ramp up action. “Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot,” she said
While it is still possible to keep warming under 1.5°C, every year of delay makes the challenge more difficult. Without immediate action, the cuts required to meet the 1.5°C goal will grow steeper, necessitating a reduction of 7.5% in emissions every year until 2035.
The report emphasizes that G20 members, responsible for 77% of global emissions, must lead the charge in climate action. The group remains off-track to meet even current NDCs, and UNEP stresses the need for the largest emitters to increase their efforts significantly.
The recent inclusion of the African Union as a permanent G20 member highlights the need for differentiated responsibilities among nations. Climate finance and international support will ensure that climate and development goals are achieved relatively.
The world’s future hangs in the balance, but UNEP insists that with collective effort and decisive action, there is still hope to avert the worst impacts of climate change. The path is clear, but the time to act is now. (nsh)
