Jakarta – Strategic Perspectives, a pan-European think tank, has thrown its full support behind the European Commission’s climate target, proposing a 90 per cent net reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040 compared to 1990 levels. This ambitious goal reflects the EU’s commitment to tackling climate change and a strategic decision to bolster economic and energy security across the continent.
In a media release, the group highlighted the proposal’s feasibility and substantial economic advantages. According to their analysis, Strategic Perspectives said achieving this target could prevent economic losses amounting to EUR 2.4 trillion between 2031 and 2050 and reduce the EU’s fossil fuel import costs by a staggering EUR 2.8 trillion over the same period.
The proposed pathway demands significant investment, with estimates suggesting a need for at least EUR 1.5 trillion annually. However, the potential savings and the strategic advantage of reducing dependency on fossil fuels present a compelling case for this transition. The EU aims to mitigate its own emissions and establish itself as a frontrunner in the global shift towards net-zero industries, competing directly with the likes of the United States and China.
An essential component of the strategy is an 80 per cent reduction in fossil fuel use for energy by 2040. While the plan does not specify individual trajectories for coal, oil, and gas, it marks an essential step towards enhancing the EU’s energy security. Strategic Perspectives believes that an even more aggressive transition is possible, with the power sector potentially eliminating gas usage and primarily relying on renewables by 2037.
Furthermore, the Commission’s proposal includes using 280 million tonnes of abatement technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS), direct air capture, and carbon usage for e-fuels. However, Strategic Perspectives suggests a more conservative approach, advocating for about half that amount, given CCS’s high costs and technological immaturity in the power sector.
Linda Kalcher, Executive Director of Strategic Perspectives, praised the proposal as “ambitious but realistic,” emphasising the economic and security benefits of reducing the EU’s reliance on fossil fuels. Neil Makaroff, the think tank’s Director, views the 90% target as a cornerstone for reindustrialisation, capable of revitalising Europe’s economy with investments, factories, and jobs while positioning European businesses at the forefront of the net-zero transition.
Despite the optimism, the debate on the reliance on abatement technologies continues. Kalcher criticises the heavy investment in CCS and other technologies as misguided, advocating for a balanced approach that includes mature, cost-effective solutions.
As European leaders deliberate on adopting this historic climate target, the decision could mark a pivotal moment for the EU’s economic security and environmental stewardship. Strategic Perspectives underscores the importance of this choice, urging for its inclusion in the Strategic Agenda to define the bloc’s priorities for the coming years. (nsh)
