Jakarta – The threat of climate crisis is not only an environmental issue, but also directly targets the foundations of the global economy. A recent study from the climaTRACES Lab at the University of Cambridge warns that global gross domestic product (GDP) per capita could fall by more than 10 percent by the end of this century if no serious mitigation measures are taken.
The research, led by Kamiar Mohaddes and Mehdi Raissi, was published in the journal PLOS Climate and examined the impact of average temperature increases from 2015 to 2100 on 174 countries. “No country is immune from the impact of climate change if greenhouse gas emissions are not curtailed”, the researchers wrote in their report, as quoted by Phys.org on Wednesday, September 24, adding that “climate change reduces income in all countries, hot and cold, rich and poor alike”.
Using temperature projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the study considers various scenarios: from historical warming trends, scenarios with no further temperature increase, to extreme scenarios with a warming rate of 0.04 degrees Celsius per year.
The results show that under extreme warming conditions without mitigation, global GDP per capita losses could reach 20–24 percent by 2100. Meanwhile, under a moderate scenario, the decline is still expected to be high, at around 10–11 percent.
The researchers observed variation among countries, noting that hotter and low-income countries might face economic losses 30–60 per cent above the global average.
Adaptation is not enough
The study also confirms that although adaptation protocols—such as infrastructure improvements and agricultural systems—can reduce the impact, these measures cannot fully offset the losses caused by global warming.
Conversely, meeting the targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which limits temperature increases to 0.01 degrees Celsius per year, will have a positive impact, increasing global income by around 0.25 percent compared to the historical trend scenario.
Not only agriculture, researchers emphasize that the transportation, manufacturing, and retail sectors will also be directly affected by the climate crisis. This challenges the long-held assumption that climate change will only harm tropical and agrarian-based countries. (Hartatik)
Banner photo: Image generated by OpenAI’s DALL·E via ChatGPT (2024)
