by: Hartatik
The discourse on transitioning to clean energy does not necessarily eliminate coal’s role from the national energy map. This is confirmed in Government Regulation (PP) No. 40 of 2025 concerning National Energy Policy (KEN), which was enacted and promulgated by President Prabowo Subianto in mid-September as a replacement for PP No. 79 of 2014.
The policy regulates Indonesia’s final energy use until 2060. In it, coal and fuel oil (BBM) still hold a significant share, despite the global trend to reduce dependence on fossil fuels.
“Final energy is the source of energy and energy that end users can directly consume,” reads Article 9 of the KEN Government Regulation.
Government projections indicate that domestic coal consumption is expected to remain high in the coming decades. In the period 2030–2039, its utilisation is estimated to reach 67.2 million to 68.7 million tons of oil equivalent (TOE).
Entering the 2040–2049 period, this figure actually increased to 83.3–85.3 million TOE. It was only in the period 2050–2059 that a decline occurred, although it remained in the range of 80.3–81.8 million TOE. A sharp decline was only observed in 2060, with projected usage ranging from 25.3 to 38.6 million TOE.
Unlike coal, fuel consumption is projected to continue declining gradually. The government estimates that fuel demand in the 2030–2039 period will remain at 75.3–82.1 million TOE.
However, a decade later, that figure had fallen to 64.3–73.5 million TOE. The downward trend continued until 2050–2059, reaching a level of 45.8–54.7 million TOE. By 2060, fuel consumption had decreased to just 22.8–32 million TOE.
Although the government is promoting an increase in the renewable energy mix, the national energy policy indicates that coal will continue to be the backbone of energy supply in the coming decades. This is driven by growing domestic energy demand and the limitations of clean energy infrastructure, which is not yet fully ready to replace fossil fuels.
On the other hand, this policy is considered to pose a dilemma. Indonesia is committed to achieving net-zero emissions (NZE) by 2060 or sooner, but projections for coal consumption in the PP KEN indicate that dependence remains high.
Banner photo: Image generated by OpenAI’s DALL·E via ChatGPT (2024)
