Jakarta – The latest report from Climate Central and World Weather Attribution (WWA) estimates that if global warming is not limited, tropical countries such as Indonesia could experience up to 234 hot days per year, or more than half of the calendar year.
The report, titled “Ten Years of the Paris Agreement: The Present and Future of Extreme Heat,” explains that even if all countries fulfil their emission reduction commitments under the Paris Agreement, global temperatures will still rise by around 2.6°C by the end of this century. Under this scenario, Indonesia will experience 134 days of extreme heat per year. However, if the world fails to curb emissions and temperatures rise by 4°C, the number of hot days in Indonesia could reach 234 days per year.
Currently, the trend of rising temperatures is already evident. The average number of hot days in Indonesia has increased from 45 days (2005–2014) to 77 days (2015–2024) — a rise of approximately 32 days over a decade. This increase places Indonesia third in the world and highest in Asia in terms of the acceleration of hot days since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015.
“There will be pain and suffering because of climate change,” said Kristina Dahl, Vice President of Science at Climate Central, who is also one of the authors of the report. “That heat sends people to the emergency room. Heat kills people,” she told Phys.org last week.
The report does not specify how many people will be affected by the additional days of extreme heat, but Friederike Otto, the report’s co-author from Imperial College London, stated that “the number will certainly reach tens of thousands or millions, no less than that.” She noted that thousands of people already die each year due to heat waves.
The report notes that the impact of recent heat waves shows that many countries are not yet prepared to deal with conditions of 1.3°C warming, let alone 2.6°C. These conditions threaten various sectors of life, from public health, labour productivity, food security, to the availability of clean water. Prolonged heat waves also risk triggering droughts, crop failures, and an increase in cases of diseases caused by extreme temperatures, especially in densely populated urban areas.
The report highlights that tropical countries such as Indonesia, Brazil, and India are the most vulnerable to the effects of extreme warming. Even a slight increase in global temperatures could trigger a significant surge in the frequency and intensity of heat waves.
In addition to environmental impacts, extreme heat crises also cause social and economic pressures. Many communities do not yet have adequate adaptation systems, such as protection for field workers, heat-resistant infrastructure, and access to health care that is responsive to extreme weather.
Researchers emphasise that long-term solutions can only be achieved through an energy transition from oil, gas, and coal to clean energy. In addition, local adaptation measures such as urban greening, increasing green open spaces, and early warning systems for heat waves need to be strengthened immediately. (Hartatik)
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