Jakarta — As global climate negotiators prepare for the UNFCCC Subsidiary Body meetings (SB 62) in Bonn, next week, concerns are mounting over the delayed submission of updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) from key emitters, including the EU, China, and India.
“We are still waiting for the big emitters to submit national climate plans,” said Catherine Abreu, Director of the International Climate Politics Hub (ICPH), told the media on Thursday, June 12. “The EU needs to deliver fast—other countries are waiting to gauge its ambition before submitting their own.”
The EU’s 2035 NDC is tied to internal wrangling over its 2040 emissions target, which may not be finalised until July. Meanwhile, China and India remain quiet on their NDC updates, further delaying global momentum. Abreu warned that the quality of these plans, beyond just timelines, will determine the effectiveness of implementation and credibility of climate action.
China’s long-standing pattern of “under-promising and over-delivering” leaves uncertainty about whether it will target the 30% emissions cut needed to stay on track for its 2060 carbon neutrality goal. India, on the other hand, is likely to prioritise adaptation over mitigation, citing a lack of climate finance as a persistent barrier.
Julius Mbatia, Climate Justice Programme Manager at ACT Alliance, underscored that finance remains the linchpin. “Governments will tell you that climate change is happening now—it will not wait for financing,” he said. “Some countries are having to commit a substantial part of their GDP to solving a crisis they did not cause.”
Developing nations are increasingly demanding a clear financing roadmap, including a non-debt-inducing mechanism to close the yawning gap between current flows and the USD 1.3 trillion annual target sought until 2030. Without it, Mbatia warned, ambition in forthcoming NDCs will falter.
With just over 150 days until COP30 in Belém, the Bonn talks are expected to set the tone for climate ambition, especially as Brazil, the incoming COP Presidency, pushes for coherence and “a common point of arrival.” Observers hope that Bonn will deliver more than just a process—it must provide the necessary political will.
As Abreu put it, “We need quality NDCs that pave the way for real implementation. Delay risks the planet’s future.” (nsh)
Banner photo: Amira Grotendiek. 11 June 2024/UNFCCC
